The Memo: March 24—31, 2025

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News Roundup:

Security, Geopolitical & Military Developments

1. Trump Threatens Military Action Against Iran and Global Tariff Implementation
2. Armed Forces Law Revision in Indonesia Sparks Renewed Protests
3. Arrest of Istanbul Mayor Sparks Largest Anti-Government Protests in Turkey Since 2013
4. Russia Convicts 23 Captured Ukrainian POWs on Terrorism Charges
5. Myanmar-Thailand Earthquake Death Toll Exceeds 2,000 as Rescue Efforts Continue
6. GlobalFoundries and UMC Explore Potential Merger as Chip Startup Retym Raises $75 Million
7. French Court Bans Marine Le Pen from Public Office for Five Years

Detailed Analysis:

US Foreign Policy and Global Security

1. Trump Escalates International Tensions with Multiple Military and Economic Threats
Assessment: Critical Security Concern
Overview: US President Donald Trump issued a series of dramatic foreign policy declarations on 31 March, threatening military action against Iran, economic sanctions against Russia, and implementing global tariffs on "all countries" starting 2 April. These interconnected statements represent a marked shift in US engagement with multiple global powers simultaneously.
Key Details:

• Iran Nuclear Standoff: In an NBC News interview, Trump threatened Iran with "bombing the likes of which they have never seen before" if Tehran does not agree to a new nuclear deal, along with secondary tariffs similar to those recently imposed on Venezuela. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that while direct negotiations remain rejected under "maximum pressure" conditions, indirect talks may continue as authorised by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Trump expressed anger toward Russian President Vladimir Putin for questioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's legitimacy, threatening 25-50% secondary tariffs on Russian oil if Moscow fails to agree to a ceasefire. This would particularly impact India and China, where Russian crude constitutes 35% and 19% of oil imports respectively. Despite recent agreements to halt Black Sea military operations and pause energy infrastructure attacks for 30 days, a comprehensive ceasefire remains elusive.
• Global Trade Policy: Trump confirmed his "Liberation Day" tariffs planned for 2 April will affect "all countries," contradicting earlier expectations they would focus only on nations with persistent trade deficits. Trump's administration is also preparing to implement auto import tariffs on 3 April, with top trade aide Peter Navarro claiming these measures could collectively raise approximately $600 billion annually, or $6 trillion over a decade.
• Implications: These simultaneous threats signal an unprecedented approach to foreign policy leverage, combining military threats with economic sanctions on a global scale. Economists warn these measures risk triggering widespread retaliatory tariffs, global inflation, and potential economic downturn, while the aggressive posture toward both Iran and Russia represents a significant escalation of geopolitical tensions.

Political and Security Developments

2. Armed Forces Law Revision in Indonesia Sparks Renewed Protests
Assessment: Regional Concern
Overview: Indonesia's Parliament unanimously passed amendments to the Armed Forces Law on 20 March, expanding military roles in civilian government by increasing the number of civilian positions that can be held by active military personnel from 10 to 14, including roles in the Attorney General's Office and Supreme Court. This decision has triggered widespread "#IndonesiaGelap" ("Dark Indonesia") protests led primarily by students across major cities including Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, Semarang, and Makassar.
Key Details:

• Impact: These demonstrations represent the second phase of protests since February 2025, when thousands initially mobilised against President Prabowo's budget cuts affecting education and oversight agencies. Clashes between protesters and police have been reported in several cities, with security forces using tear gas and making arrests in locations like Semarang.
• Implications: Critics view these amendments as a concerning shift toward Suharto-era "dwifungsi" doctrine that gave military extensive control over civilian affairs. The timing of these changes just months after President Prabowo's inauguration has raised alarms about potential democratic backsliding, particularly as protest organisers pursue judicial review while government officials maintain the amendments preserve civilian authority.

3. Arrest of Istanbul Mayor Sparks Largest Anti-Government Protests in Turkey Since 2013
Assessment: Significant Regional Instability
Overview: Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested on 19 March and subsequently imprisoned pending trial on corruption allegations, triggering nationwide protests that represent the largest anti-government demonstrations since the 2013 Gezi Park protests. The arrest came just one day after Istanbul University rescinded İmamoğlu's 1990 diploma, widely interpreted as an attempt to disqualify him from future presidential elections. The Republican People's Party (CHP) officially designated İmamoğlu as their presidential candidate the same day he was sent to prison.
Key Details:

• Impact: The government has responded with extensive crackdowns, detaining nearly 1,900 protesters and journalists over eight days of demonstrations. Police have used water cannons, tear gas, and other tactics to disperse crowds, while authorities have banned gatherings in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir until April. The crisis has significantly destabilised Turkey's economy, with the central bank spending $11.5 billion defending the lira after it plunged up to 11% against the US dollar.
• Implications: The arrest is widely perceived as politically motivated, as İmamoğlu has emerged as President Erdoğan's main rival after defeating his party twice in mayoral elections. Recent polls suggest İmamoğlu would be a formidable challenger to Erdoğan, who faces constitutional term limits ahead of the 2028 elections. International criticism has mounted, with the EU and France condemning the move as democratic backsliding, potentially straining Turkey's European relations.

Terrorism, Extremism and Insurgency

4. Russia Convicts 23 Captured Ukrainian POWs on Alleged Terrorism Charges
Assessment: International Law Violation
Overview: A Russian military court has sentenced 23 captured Ukrainian prisoners of war to lengthy incarcerations ranging from 13 to 23 years, charging them with staging a violent coup d'état and participating in terrorist activities. The defendants, captured during Russia's siege of Mariupol, include 12 members of the Ukrainian Azov Battalion and support personnel such as cooks. Several defendants faced additional charges of overseeing "illegal trainings" related to the Ukraine conflict.
Key Details:

• Impact: Ukrainian human rights organisations have denounced the ruling as a "sham trial," with Ukraine's human rights ombudsman filing a complaint to the United Nations arguing that the defendants are war combatants who should not face criminal trials. Independent news outlet Mediazona reports that some defendants plan to appeal their convictions.
• Implications: Under the Third Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War, the defendants are considered lawful combatants in armed conflict. This high-profile case highlights Russia's pattern of circumventing international law in its treatment of Ukrainian POWs, adding to mounting reports of unfair treatment and violations of prisoner rights.

Natural Disasters and Humanitarian Crises

5. Myanmar-Thailand Struck by Powerful 7.7-Magnitude Earthquake: Death Toll Exceeds 2,000
Assessment: Severe Humanitarian Emergency
Overview: A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake with a shallow 10km depth struck Myanmar's Sagaing region on 28 March, causing widespread destruction across Myanmar and Thailand. As of 31 March, the death toll has reached at least 2,065 in Myanmar and 19 in Thailand, with more than 3,900 injured and over 270 missing in Myanmar. Rescue efforts continue as survivors are still being pulled from rubble three days after the disaster.
Key Details:

• Impact: Chinese rescue workers have freed four people from collapsed buildings in Mandalay, including a pregnant woman and a girl. In Bangkok, rescuers continue operations at a collapsed skyscraper construction site where 12 have died and 75 remain missing, with signs of life still being detected. Critical infrastructure across Myanmar—including bridges, highways, airports, and railways—has been severely damaged, hampering humanitarian efforts.
• Implications: Myanmar's civil war significantly complicates relief operations, with rescue teams facing security issues crossing front lines. The United Nations and several countries including China, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Russia, and the United States have sent aid and rescue personnel. Myanmar's military government has declared a week-long mourning period, while opposition groups report the junta is still conducting airstrikes in some areas despite the crisis, prompting Singapore's foreign minister to call for an immediate ceasefire to facilitate relief efforts.
• Regional Preparedness: The disaster has prompted renewed discussions about earthquake readiness in neighbouring countries. In Malaysia, despite being outside the Pacific Ring of Fire, experts advise vigilance as the country has experienced several minor tremors in recent decades, particularly in Sabah, which recorded earthquakes of magnitudes between 6.0 and 6.3 in 1923, 1958, 1976, and 2015. Malaysia has implemented earthquake-resistant building codes based on Eurocode 8 standards over the past decade and maintains 80 seismic sensors and 83 tsunami sirens nationwide, with the capability to relay earthquake alerts within eight minutes of detection.

Business and Technology Developments

6. GlobalFoundries and UMC Explore Potential Merger as Chip Startup Retym Raises $75 Million
Assessment: Strategic Industry Consolidation
Overview: The semiconductor industry continues to see significant strategic developments amid global competition for AI and technological supremacy. U.S.-based GlobalFoundries and Taiwan's United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) are reportedly exploring a potential merger according to a 31 March Nikkei report, while chip startup Retym announced it has raised $75 million this year as part of $180 million in total funding to develop advanced networking chips for AI computing in data centres.
Key Details:

• Impact: A GlobalFoundries-UMC merger would unite two significant players with a combined market capitalisation of approximately $37.3 billion, creating a larger U.S.-based firm with manufacturing facilities spanning Asia, the United States, and Europe. Meanwhile, Retym's specialised digital signal processing (DSP) chips aim to address critical data transmission bottlenecks in AI infrastructure, enabling faster movement of information between data centres across distances of 10-120 kilometres.
• Implications: These developments highlight the intensifying global competition in semiconductor technology, particularly for AI applications. The potential consolidation aligns with U.S. efforts to strengthen domestic semiconductor supply chains amid rising geopolitical tensions with China and concerns about Taiwan's security. Retym's focus on solving connectivity issues for large-scale AI computing represents a strategic effort to challenge Marvell Technology's dominance in this critical sector, as creating advanced AI models requires thousands of interconnected chips working in concert.

Political and Legal Developments

7. French Far-Right Leader Marine Le Pen Banned from Public Office for Five Years
Assessment: Major Political Disruption
Overview: A French court has convicted far-right leader Marine Le Pen of embezzling European Union funds, imposing a five-year ban from running for public office that rules her out of the 2027 presidential race unless she wins an appeal. The 31 March ruling also included a four-year prison sentence (two years suspended, two years under home detention) and a €100,000 ($108,200) fine, though these penalties won't be applied until her appeals are exhausted.
Key Details:

• Impact: The court found Le Pen, the National Rally (RN) party, and two dozen party figures guilty of diverting more than €4 million ($4.33 million) of European Parliament funds for party purposes rather than legitimate parliamentary assistant work. The party itself was ordered to pay a €2 million fine with half the amount suspended. While Le Pen will retain her current parliamentary seat until her term ends in 2029, the immediate ban prevents her from seeking new office.
• Implications: The conviction represents a seismic shift in French politics, as Le Pen has been the front-runner in opinion polls for the 2027 presidential contest. RN president Jordan Bardella, who has helped expand the party's appeal among younger voters, now appears positioned to become the party's de facto candidate. The ruling has drawn condemnation from far-right leaders across Europe—including Italy's Matteo Salvini and Hungary's Viktor Orbán—who characterised it as judicial overreach, while further polarising France's already hung parliament where Le Pen presides over the single largest party.

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