The Memo: January 26—February 2, 2025
The Memo from January 26—February 2, 2025: Summary of incidents, ranging from terrorism, covert actions, organised crimes, regional conflicts to cybersecurity incidents.
Top Stories of the Week:
Regional Threats in Focus**
- Indonesian Protesters Target Malaysian Embassy Over Migrant Worker Shooting
- Morocco Arrests Four in Islamic State-Connected Terror Plot
- Myanmar Junta Airstrikes Kill 22
Protests
1. Indonesian Protesters Target Malaysian Embassy Over Migrant Worker Shooting
Threat Level: Low
Overview:
On January 24, 2025, Malaysian maritime authorities shot and killed a 50-year-old Indonesian migrant worker and wounded four others for allegedly trespassing in Malaysian waters. The incident sparked outrage in Indonesia, leading to protests by approximateely 100 Indonesian workers from the Confederation of Indonesian Trade Unions (KSPI) and the Labour Party outside the Malaysian Embassy in Jakarta on January 30.
Key Details:
- Impact: Protests at the Malaysian embassy in Jakarta reflect public anger over a long history of alleged abuses against Indonesian migrant workers by Malaysian authorities.
- Scope: The incident may strain Indonesia-Malaysia relations, with Indonesian officials demanding transparency and accountability from Malaysian authorities.
Terrorism and Insurgency
2. Morocco Arrests Four in Islamic State-Linked Terror Plot
Threat Level: Low to Moderate
Overview:
Moroccan counter-terrorism police arrested four Islamic State-linked suspects in Had Soualem, near Casablanca, on January 30, 2025. The group had planned to attack key security facilities, a supermarket, and public areas using explosives.
Key Details:
- Impact: The foiled plot prevented potential mass casualties and disruption to public safety.
- Scope: While the plot was localized to Morocco, it reflects the broader regional threat posed by jihadist groups in Africa. However, no significant cross-regional ripple-effect is expected.
Conflicts
3. Myanmar Junta Airstrikes Kill 22
Threat Level: Critical
Overview:
Junta forces conducted airstrikes on Singut village in Mandalay Region, hitting a school and hospital in rebel-held territory. The deadly assault, which occurred over the weekend, with two bombs reportedly dropped on a school used as a rebel base, killed at least 22 people, including rebels, civilians, and children.
Key Details:
- Impact: The airstrikes undermine the recently signed ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army on January 18, 2025, raising doubts about the junta’s commitment to peace.
- Scope: This incident underscores the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the junta’s disregard for civilian lives. The involvement of China in brokering the ceasefire highlights the geopolitical stakes of Myanmar’s conflict.
Our Assessment Guide
| Threat Level | Impact | Frequency | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negligible | No measurable impact. | Extremely rare or one-off. | Limited to a single individual or very small area. |
| Minimal | Negligible or minor impact. | Rare or isolated. | Limited to a small area or group. |
| Low | Minor but noticeable impact. | Infrequent. | Localised to a specific community or sub-region. |
| Moderate | Noticeable but manageable impact. | Occasional. | Localised to a specific region or province. |
| Significant | Substantial impact on people, infrastructure, or finances. | Frequent. | Regional or multi-provincial scope. |
| High | Severe impact with potential for escalation. | Very frequent or recurring. | National scope. |
| Critical | Catastrophic or existential impact. | Constant or escalating. | Transnational or strategic implications. |
ICYMI: Exclusive access to paid subscribers only...
Munira Mustaffa
Munira Mustaffa
Munira Mustaffa
Please feel free to share The Deep Dive with your colleagues. In addition, we would appreciate it if you could consider becoming a paid subscriber with our tiered subscription packages to support our publication. Your support will help us continue providing valuable insights to assist you in making operational decisions.