The Memo: January 18—26, 2025
The Memo from 18—26 Jan 2025: Summary of incidents, ranging from terrorism, covert actions, organised crimes, regional conflicts to cybersecurity incidents.
Top Stories of the Week:
Scams, Espionage, and Regional Threats in Focus
- Basilan Clash Leaves Two Soldiers Dead, 12 Wounded
- Narathiwat Bomb Attack
- Transnational Scam Syndicates
- Espionage Activities in the Philippines
This week we are unrolling our new Memo format.
Terrorism and Insurgency
1. Basilan Clash Leaves Two Soldiers Dead, 12 Wounded
Threat Level: Low to Moderate
Overview:
Two government soldiers were killed and 12 others wounded in a clash with alleged Moro Islamic Liberation (MILF) members in Sumisip, Basilan in the Philippines on 22 January. The incident occurred as troops were en route to support a UNDP-led livelihood project, raising concerns about the stability of peacebuilding efforts in the region.
Key Details:
- Impact: Loss of life, injuries, and disruption of peace initiatives.
- Scope: Localised to Basilan with no significant spillover expected, but may have implications for regional peace processes.
2. Narathiwat Bomb Attack
Threat Level: Low to Moderate
Overview:
A homemade bomb detonated by Muslim insurgents injured five ranger troops in Narathiwat, Thailand on 23 January. The attack targeted a pavilion at an abandoned Buddhist temple in Chulabhorn village, a frequent rest stop for security forces. Four rangers sustained severe injuries, while one suffered minor wounds.
Key Details:
- Impact: Physical harm to security personnel.
- Scope: Localised to southern Thailand, with no significant spillover expected.
Organised Crime and Scams
3. Transnational Scam Syndicates
Threat Level: Critical
Overview:
Malaysian police arrested 16 individuals linked to a scam syndicate that defrauded victims in Singapore of over 1.4 million SGD. The group impersonated bank and government officials, using sophisticated tactics to deceive victims.
Key Details:
- Impact: Significant financial losses (120 million SGD in 2024).
- Scope: Transnational, targeting victims across Southeast Asia.
Espionage and National Security
4. Espionage Activities in the Philippines
Threat Level: Moderate
Overview:
A suspected Chinese sleeper agent, Deng Yuanqing, was arrested along with two Filipinos for gathering sensitive military and infrastructure data in the Philippines. The case highlights a significant national security threat for the country. Previously, former Philippines mayor Alice Guo was arrested over allegations of corruption, transnational crimes, and espionage.
Key Details:
- Impact: Potential compromise of military and infrastructure security.
- Scope: National, with implications for regional security.
Our Assessment Guide
| Threat Level | Impact | Frequency | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negligible | No measurable impact. | Extremely rare or one-off. | Limited to a single individual or very small area. |
| Minimal | Negligible or minor impact. | Rare or isolated. | Limited to a small area or group. |
| Low | Minor but noticeable impact. | Infrequent. | Localised to a specific community or sub-region. |
| Moderate | Noticeable but manageable impact. | Occasional. | Localised to a specific region or province. |
| Significant | Substantial impact on people, infrastructure, or finances. | Frequent. | Regional or multi-provincial scope. |
| High | Severe impact with potential for escalation. | Very frequent or recurring. | National scope. |
| Critical | Catastrophic or existential impact. | Constant or escalating. | Transnational or strategic implications. |
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Munira Mustaffa
Munira Mustaffa
Munira Mustaffa
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