The Memo: February 2—9, 2025

Top Stories of the Week:

Regional Situation Updates

1. Insurgent Attack in Pattani Injures Four Policemen
2. Mall Shooting in Malaysia Sparks Manhunt
3. US Military Plane Crash in Philippines Kills Four
4. US Extends National Emergency Declaration for Myanmar Amid Aid Cuts

Terrorism and Insurgency

1. Insurgent Attack in Pattani Injures Four Policemen

Threat Level: High

Overview:
An explosion targeted police officers in Pattani’s Nong Chik district on February 7, 2025, injuring four policemen. The blast occurred at 7:30 am near the Don Yang Intersection, close to a Bangchak gas station, as the officers were patrolling the area.

Key Details:

• Impact: Four policemen were injured. The attack contributes to the ongoing unrest in the region, which has seen frequent violence targeting security forces and civilians.
• Implications: The incident highlights the broader security challenges in Thailand’s southern border provinces.

Crime

2. Mall Shooting in Malaysia Sparks Manhunt

Threat Level: Low

Overview:
A shooting incident at Setia City Mall in Selangor on February 8, 2025, sent shoppers into panic when a man in his 30s opened fire inside the complex. The suspect, who has 11 prior criminal records, shot a cleaner and later took a driver hostage at gunpoint to facilitate his escape. Police investigators recovered more than 10 bullet casings from the scene.

Key Details:

• Impact: The incident raises questions about mall security and incident response.
• Implications: While the incident is localised, it reflects broader local and regional challenges with the prevalence of firearms and public safety. The incident could prompt discussions about reviewing current safety measures at public spaces like shopping malls.

Flight Incident

3. US Military Plane Crash in Philippines Kills Four

Threat Level: N/A

Overview:
A small plane contracted by the US Defense Department crashed on Mindanao island in the southern Philippines on Thursday, killing all four people on board, including one US service member and three defense contractors. The aircraft was providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support for US-Philippine security cooperation activities.

Key Details:

• Implications: The use of defense contractors for sensitive missions raises questions about accountability and oversight.

Conflicts

4. US Extends National Emergency Declaration for Myanmar Amid Aid Cuts

Threat Level: N/A

Overview:
US President Donald Trump extended the national emergency declaration for Myanmar by one year, allowing Biden-era sanctions against the military junta to remain in place. However, the move coincided with criticism over the Trump administration’s freezing of nearly $40 million in aid for Burmese pro-democracy groups, human rights organisations, and independent media.

Key Details:

• Impact: The extension signals continued US pressure on the junta but raises concerns about the impact of reduced funding on Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement and civil society.
• Scope: The decision reflects US concerns over China’s growing influence in Myanmar, as Beijing continues to back the junta.

Recommended podcast and reads:

ICYMI I recently appeared on BFM 89.9 to discuss Malaysia's new Border Control and Protection Agency, which launched operations this month. The full interview is available for listening here.

Additionally, I'm also fortunate to be among the early readers of John Lechner's upcoming book, Death Is Our Business: Russian Mercenaries and the New Era of Private Warfare, about the Wagner Group, Russia's private military company. The book explores the organisation formerly led by Evgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash after making headlines for his role in Russian military operations. Stay tuned for my upcoming review of the book, which is expected to be released early March, 2025.

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