The Memo: 5 Aug—11 Aug 2024

In brief:

• Three Dawlah Islamiya and eight BIFF members surrendered with weapons.
• Former JI leaders admit past mistakes, emphasise unity, voluntary dissolution.
• Ten, including nine officers, injured in suspected retaliatory Pattani bombings.
• Myanmar ethnic group attacked fleeing Rohingya, causing 150 civilian deaths.
• Sheikh Hasina resigns after protests; military takes control in Bangladesh
• Ukrainian forces advance into Russia; Russia struggles to respond.
• Canadian ex-UN official detained in Switzerland over suspected espionage activities.
• Mossad allegedly recruits Iranians for Haniyeh assassination, escalating Middle East tensions.
• Malaysia's Cyber Security Act soon enforces, aiming to enhance national cybersecurity framework.
• Trump campaign hacked, suspects Iranian operatives.

Terrorism and insurgency

1. Philippines
   Three members of Dawlah Islamiya surrendered to authorities in Maguindanao del Sur on August 8, 2024, turning over high-powered firearms and explosives. Meanwhile, eight men trained by the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters surrendered to the military in Cotabato City, Philippines three days later. They handed over IED components, weapons, and ammunition.
   
2. Indonesia
   Following Jemaah Islamiyah's recent dissolution, former leaders of JI reportedly participated in a seminar, unequivocally admitting their past mistakes and strongly emphasising the need for unity and meaningful contributions to society. Former leader of the Hilal Ahmar Society Indonesia (HASI, Bambang Sukirno (alias Abu Zahra) asserted that the dissolution of JI was a deliberate, voluntary decision, driven by deep internal reflection and an expanded understanding of Islam. This event, backed by Densus 88, marks a significant step towards reinforcing national unity and positive change.
   
3. Thailand
   Ten people, including nine police officers, suffered injuries when suspected insurgents deliberately detonated three bombs near a fishing port in Pattani. The assailants used the first bomb planted in a pickup truck to lure officers, then triggered the second and third explosions using IEDs near the initial blast site. Authorities are now urgently searching for the attackers and investigating their connections to previous incidents. This attack is likely to be retaliatory following the recent killings of suspected insurgents by security forces in a clash in Narathiwat.

---

Intelligence, Espionage, Assassination and Covert Actions

1. Switzerland
   A Canadian former UN official and North Korean expert, Craig, has been detained in Switzerland since March under suspicion of espionage, according to a joint investigation by media outlets from North Korea, Germany, and Switzerland. The investigation revealed that Craig allegedly exchanged cash for information about North Korean diplomats with a Chinese military intelligence agent. Swiss authorities initiated an investigation on March 14, placing Craig in pretrial detention without public charges. If convicted, he could face up to three years in prison.
   
2. Iran
   Two Iranian Revolutionary Guard members, allegedly recruited by Mossad, planted an explosive under Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s bed in Tehran. Security footage captured them on camera entering and leaving the room before Mossad extracted them from Iran. The assassination of Haniyeh has escalated tensions in the Middle East, with Iran and Hezbollah vowing retaliation against Israel. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the killing, which have intensified the ongoing conflict.

---

Conflict and unrests

1. Myanmar
   An ethnic armed group in Myanmar conducted a deadly attack on Rohingya Muslims attempting to flee the country, resulting in an estimated 150 civilian deaths in Rakhine state. The attack, reportedly involving drones and artillery, appears to be one of the deadliest incidents targeting civilians during the ongoing civil war. Survivors and activists attribute the assault to the Arakan Army, although the group denied involvement and offered condolences. This incident raises the probability of renewed violence against the Rohingya, reminiscent of the 2017 military campaign that forced hundreds of thousands to flee to Bangladesh.
   
2. Bangladesh
   Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country, following intense student protests that resulted in 300 deaths, thousands of injuries, and over 10,000 arrests. The military took control, with the army chief promising justice and forming an interim government. Sheikh Hasina's resignation marked the end of nearly 15 years of increasing authoritarianism, and the international community has called for a peaceful transition.
   
3. Russia and Ukraine
   Ukrainian troops have advanced over 10km into Russia’s Kursk region, marking Kyiv's deepest incursion since Russia's full-scale invasion. The Russian defence ministry claims to be repelling the attack, with heavy casualties reported, though these figures are unverified. The fighting has approached a nuclear power plant, prompting the UN to urge restraint. Ukraine has struck a military airfield deep inside Russia, while Russia retaliated with a deadly strike on a Ukrainian town. Against the backdrop of domestic criticism and economic impacts, Russia struggles to halt Ukraine’s offensive.

---

Cyber security and unlawful access

1. Malaysia
   The Cyber Security Act (Act 854) in Malaysia, passed in March and gazetted in June, is set to be enforced soon to strengthen the nation’s cybersecurity framework. The National Cyber Security Agency (Nacsa) is preparing for its implementation by finalising regulations and increasing manpower. The Act empowers Nacsa as the lead agency and establishes a regulatory framework for National Critical Information Infrastructure (NCII) sectors. Collaboration with the private sector and the development of cybersecurity talent are key priorities under the Act. The National Cyber Security Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister, will oversee its execution.
   
2. United States
   Donald Trump’s campaign reported a hack of its internal communications, suspected to be by Iranian operatives, with documents on running mate JD Vance leaked to Politico. The campaign linked the incident to Iranian hackers, coinciding with Trump’s vice-presidential selection. Microsoft had earlier reported an Iranian cyberattack targeting a US presidential campaign in June.

---

ICYMI: Exclusive access to paid subscribers only...

• Flashpoint on Deadly Mosque Attack Shocks Oman: Nine Dead as IS Claims Responsibility.
• Insight on Navigating the Strategic and Policy Implications of Jemaah Islamiyah's Dissolution in Indonesia.
• Insight on Contextualising Al-Qaeda's Call To Arms and Implications for Southeast Asia's Militants.
• Flashpoint on U.S. Sanctions on Malaysian Semiconductor Trading Firm.
• Insight on Reassessing the Ulu Tiram Incident: The Subjectivity of Terror Labels.
• Insight on Jemaah Islamiyah Arrests in Sulawesi: Contextualising the Threat Perception by Alif Satria.
• Insight on India's Elections and Beyond: Balancing Nationalism with Global Aspirations by Hari Prasad.
• The Deep Dive on Shalom Avitan and Illicit Arms Trade in Malaysia's Periphery. A useful read to understand Thailand-Malaysia gunrunning.
• Flashpoint analysis on Iran-Israel Standoff: Navigating a No-Win Situation - Recent military exchanges between Israel and Iran have heightened regional tensions. What implications might this have for global stability?

Please feel free to share The Deep Dive with your colleagues. In addition, we would appreciate it if you could consider becoming a paid subscriber with our tiered subscription packages to support our publication. Your support will help us continue providing valuable insights to assist you in making operational decisions