The Memo: 29 Jul—4 Aug 2024

In brief:

• Teen arrested in Malang, Indonesia for planning IS-linked suicide bombing.
• High-profile US-Russia prisoner exchange frees Whelan and Gershkovich.
• MNDAA seizes Northeastern Command, attacks hospital, kills over 100.
• Far-right riots in UK over misinformation about stabbing suspect.
• Hamas political chief assassinated in Tehran; tensions rise.
• Russia's cybercrime treaty sparks privacy concerns, dismisses human rights.

Terrorism and insurgency

1. Indonesia
   Indonesian authorities arrested a 19-year-old, identified only as HOK, in Batu City, Malang, on suspicion of planning a suicide bombing. The country's Densus 88 anti-terrorism unit revealed that HOK had pledged with the Islamic State (IS) and had intended to target two houses of worship in Malang with TATP explosives. HOK reportedly learned bomb-making online, funded his activities with personal savings, and assembled the bomb at his parents' home, with their knowledge. His parents and siblings were also detained for questioning.

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Intelligence, Espionage and Covert Actions

1. US and Russia
   In a so-called diplomatic triumph for Biden's administration, US journalist Evan Gershkovich and ex-Marine Paul Whelan returned home in a high-profile prisoner exchange with Russia. The deal, 16 political prisoners from Russia and Belarus, including Whelan and Gershkovich, in exchange for eight Russians, saw Russian President Putin grandly welcoming back the likes of FSB colonel Vadim Krasikov. Critics caution that this exchange could encourage future hostage-taking. Although the White House described the negotiations as a diplomatic feat, the swap, the largest since the Cold War, does little to improve strained US-Russia relations. Despite the success, seven wrongfully-detained Americans, including teacher Marc Fogel, were left behind.

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Conflict and unrests

1. Myanmar
   The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) seized the Northeastern Command headquarters (NCHQ) in Lashio after a month of fighting. They released photos of their troops at the base's signboard on Saturday. The MNDAA and allied forces brutally also raided a military hospital associated with the NCHQ in the area, killing over 100 people, including children, doctors, and nurses, and resulting in a massacre of patients and medical staff. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allies also attacked junta battalions near Kyaukme and clashed in Nawnghkio Township, capturing some individuals during the attack.
   
2. Great Britain
   Far-right protests erupted across England due to misinformation about a stabbing attack suspect, Axel Rudakubana, falsely identified as a Muslim immigrant. Violence erupted and rioting occurred in cities like Liverpool, Manchester, and Sunderland, with several officers injured and numerous arrests. In Rotherham, police struggled to contain far-right rioters attacking a hotel housing asylum-seekers. Rioters hurled missiles and set small fires while police helicopters monitored the chaos. The pogroms spread across the country, leading to numerous arrests and strained police resources. Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the violence and promised increased police support. Meanwhile, an unrelated stabbing in Stirling, Scotland, prompted Tommy Robinson, founder of the English Defence League (EDL), to spread false claims that the attacker was a Muslim. In response, Police Scotland immediately disclosed that the arrested man was white and from the local area, an unusual move for the force.
   
3. Middle East
   A missile strike allegedly assassinated Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran. Eyewitnesses confirmed the projectile destroyed part of the room he was in. This assassination occurred less than 24 hours after Hezbollah confirmed the death of senior commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli air strike in Beirut that targeted him in response to a rocket attack on the Golan Heights. Experts warn that this development could escalate Middle East conflicts. Both Hamas and Iran accused Israel of being behind the attack. Iran's supreme leader vowed revenge, calling the strike humiliating for Iran. Following this, Western governments have advised immediate evacuation and urged their citizens to leave Lebanon due to the escalating tension. Major airlines have already suspended flights to affected regions.

Cyber security and unlawful access

1. United Nations
   UN member states began a two-week meeting to finalise a treaty on cybercrime, initiated by Russia in 2017, despite opposition from the US and EU. The treaty aims to combat cybercrime efficiently, enhancing international cooperation on issues like child pornography and money laundering. However, critics, including human rights groups and major tech companies, argue the treaty could infringe on freedoms and privacy, likening it to a global surveillance tool. Concerns persist about the treaty's broad scope and potential misuse against dissent and privacy. Russia, meanwhile, dismisses these concerns, arguing that an excessive focus on human rights is detrimental to international cooperation.

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ICYMI: Exclusive access to paid subscribers only...

• Flashpoint on Deadly Mosque Attack Shocks Oman: Nine Dead as IS Claims Responsibility.
• Insight on Navigating the Strategic and Policy Implications of Jemaah Islamiyah's Dissolution in Indonesia.
• Insight on Contextualising Al-Qaeda's Call To Arms and Implications for Southeast Asia's Militants.
• Flashpoint on U.S. Sanctions on Malaysian Semiconductor Trading Firm.
• Insight on Reassessing the Ulu Tiram Incident: The Subjectivity of Terror Labels.
• Insight on Jemaah Islamiyah Arrests in Sulawesi: Contextualising the Threat Perception by Alif Satria.
• Insight on India's Elections and Beyond: Balancing Nationalism with Global Aspirations by Hari Prasad.
• The Deep Dive on Shalom Avitan and Illicit Arms Trade in Malaysia's Periphery. A useful read to understand Thailand-Malaysia gunrunning.
• Flashpoint analysis on Iran-Israel Standoff: Navigating a No-Win Situation - Recent military exchanges between Israel and Iran have heightened regional tensions. What implications might this have for global stability?

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