The Memo: 15 Jul—21 Jul 2024
The Memo from 15 Jul—21 Jul 2024: Summary of incidents, ranging from terrorism, covert actions, organised crimes, regional conflicts to cybersecurity incidents.
In brief:
- IS claimed its first attack in Oman, killing six.
- Pakistan's anti-terrorism police arrested senior al-Qaeda leader Aminul Haq.
- FBI investigates attack on Trump as "domestic terrorism."
- INTERPOL's anti-financial crime operation leads to 300 arrests.
- Chinese-led "pig butchering" scams steal billions from Americans.
- Russian court sentences WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich to 16 years.
- Israel charges Elimelech Stern for espionage on behalf of Iran.
- Myanmar's junta deploys drafted soldiers to frontlines amid heavy losses.
- Thailand to scrutinise transactions linked to Myanmar’s junta's weapon purchases.
- CrowdStrike update caused global crashes on 8.5 million devices.
Terrorism and insurgency
- Oman
The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a deadly shooting at a Shia mosque in Muscat, Oman, marking its first claimed attack in the Gulf nation. Six people, including a police officer, four Pakistani nationals, and an Indian national, were killed. This incident was described as "unprecendented" for traditionally stable Oman, which has seen very little jihadist activity in the past. For more, see our Insight. - Pakistan
Pakistan's anti-terrorism police arrested Aminul Haq, a senior al-Qaeda (AQ) leader and former aide to Osama bin Laden, in Punjab province. Haq, listed as a global terrorist by the UN, was apprehended in Sarai Alamgir town within the Gujrat district, planning terrorist activities. - United States
The FBI is investigating the recent attack on former President Donald Trump as possible "domestic terrorism." During a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump was shot by an attacker, leaving him with a minor injury. The shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, acted alone but had left "suspicious devices" at his home. The incident has intensified political tensions ahead of the upcoming election, with Trump using the attack to rally his supporters.
Organised Crimes
- Ireland
INTERPOL's anti-financial crime operation, targeting West African organised crime groups, resulted in 300 arrests and the seizure of $3 million in assets, including cryptocurrencies. Operation Jackal III, running from April to July 2024, focused on online financial fraud, identifying over 400 suspects and blocking 720 bank accounts. One major syndicate, Black Axe, was involved in cyber fraud, human trafficking, and money laundering. - Bangkok
A US Institute of Peace (USIP) report reveals that "pig butchering" scams, primarily operated by Chinese-led gangs in Southeast Asia, have stolen billions from Americans, causing severe financial and emotional damage. These scams involve fake online romances that trick victims into investing in fraudulent cryptocurrency schemes. The gangs often lure or kidnap workers from developing countries to Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos, where they are tortured and forced into scamming.
Intelligence and Covert Actions
- Russia
A Russian court has convicted Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich of espionage, sentencing him to 16 years in a high-security penal colony. This rapid trial may lead to a potential prisoner swap, with Russian President Vladimir Putin indicating openness to an exchange. Gershkovich, who denied the charges, was accused of gathering secret information on tank production. Both the US and the WSJ have condemned the charges as baseless and politically motivated.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, treason and espionage cases in Russia have surged, reminiscent of Stalin's 1930s show trials. High-profile victims include scientists, journalists, and activists, with many being convicted and sentenced to lengthy prison terms. This crackdown is largely driven by the Federal Security Service's (FSB) expanded authority and the Kremlin's intensified focus on suppressing dissent and perceived threats. - Israel
Israel charged Elimelech Stern, 21, and detained two others for espionage on behalf of Iran. Stern was approached via Telegram by an individual using the alias "Anna Elena" and solicited to commit various crimes, including murder and arson, although he declined these tasks. The investigation revealed that Iranian intelligence is using social media to recruit individuals, utilising fake profiles on platforms like Telegram and Instagram. This case follows similar incidents, including a previous espionage case and efforts by Iran to extort information from Israeli soldiers via social media honey traps.
Conflict
- Myanmar
Myanmar's junta has deployed the first batch of soldiers drafted under its new military service law to frontlines against ethnic rebels. This move, amidst heavy losses since the 2021 coup, included training about 9,000 recruits. The controversial law, which allows drafting men and women, sparked assassinations of officials and a wave of draft-dodging. Despite initial claims, recruits are now being sent directly into conflict zones, underscoring the junta's desperate need for manpower and raising concerns about their use as "human shields." - Thailand
Thailand will meet with banks and state agencies next week to scrutinise transactions allegedly used by Myanmar’s junta for weapons purchases, following a UN report on increased funds moved via Thai banks. Thai bank representatives admitted they followed regulations but lacked the capacity to investigate all suspicious transactions. The Thai foreign minister emphasised the need for due diligence and rejected economic sanctions on Myanmar. The central bank is considering creating an information database on companies linked to Myanmar’s junta.
Cyber security and unlawful access
- Worldwide
A CrowdStrike's faulty update caused a global tech disaster and blue screens of death on Windows systems worldwide, affecting 8.5 million Windows devices across various industries. Retailers, banks, airlines, and other industries experienced significant operational challenges and disruptions. CrowdStrike explained that the error stemmed from a configuration file update within its Falcon sensor. The incident highlighted vulnerabilities in automatic update processes.
ICYMI: Exclusive access to paid subscribers only...
- Flashpoint on Deadly Mosque Attack Shocks Oman: Nine Dead as IS Claims Responsibility.
- Insight on Navigating the Strategic and Policy Implications of Jemaah Islamiyah's Dissolution in Indonesia.
- Insight on Contextualising Al-Qaeda's Call To Arms and Implications for Southeast Asia's Militants.
- Flashpoint on U.S. Sanctions on Malaysian Semiconductor Trading Firm.
- Insight on Reassessing the Ulu Tiram Incident: The Subjectivity of Terror Labels.
- Insight on Jemaah Islamiyah Arrests in Sulawesi: Contextualising the Threat Perception by Alif Satria.
- Insight on India's Elections and Beyond: Balancing Nationalism with Global Aspirations by Hari Prasad.
- The Deep Dive on Shalom Avitan and Illicit Arms Trade in Malaysia's Periphery. A useful read to understand Thailand-Malaysia gunrunning.
- Flashpoint analysis on Iran-Israel Standoff: Navigating a No-Win Situation - Recent military exchanges between Israel and Iran have heightened regional tensions. What implications might this have for global stability?
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