The Memo: 1 Dec—8 Dec 2024

In brief:

• Philippines: Army kills two communist rebel leaders in Northern Samar
• Syria: HTS rebels capture Damascus from Assad, promise moderate rule
• South Korea: President survives impeachment vote after martial law crisis
• France: PM Barnier loses confidence vote, forcing government collapse
• Romania: Court annuls election amid Russian interference claims
• Georgia: Protests erupt over frozen EU accession talks
• Malaysia: MCMC releases new voluntary cybersecurity guidelines.

Terrorism and insurgency

1. Northern Samar, The Philippines

Two communist rebel commanders were killed alongside four fighters during clashes with the 19th Infantry Battalion in Northern Samar province. Military officials identified the leaders as Ariel Baselga and Renar Diaz, New People's Army figures linked to regional extortion and killings in Paco village, Las Navas district.

2. Damascus, Syria

Syrian rebels declared the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad after seizing Damascus, ending his decades-long rule following a protracted civil war. This significant shift has dramatically weakened the influence of Assad's allies, Russia and Iran, in the region. Celebrations erupted in Damascus as people celebrated their newfound freedom, while concerns about future instability loom large. The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now face the daunting task of governing a fractured nation in need of extensive rebuilding and reconciliation (a Flashpoint analysis will be supplied to paid subscribers).

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Governance, elections, and influence operations

1. South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol survives an impeachment vote, falling five votes short of the required 200, after his controversial martial law declaration sparked nationwide protests. The ruling People's Power Party largely boycotted the vote, whilst opposition leader Lee Jae-myung vows to remove Yoon by year's end. Yoon's brief military takeover attempt, aimed at breaking a political deadlock, prompted revelations that he had ordered arrests of political rivals, including his own party leader.

2. France

France's Prime Minister Michel Barnier loses a no-confidence vote, forcing the government's collapse in a historic defeat unseen since 1962. The former Brexit negotiator faced overwhelming opposition after using special powers to push through a controversial budget without parliamentary approval. President Emmanuel Macron must now appoint a new prime minister amidst political deadlock, as no party holds a majority in parliament following last summer's snap elections.

3. Romania

Romania's Constitutional Court annuls first-round presidential election results amidst evidence of Russian interference to boost far-right candidate Calin Georgescu. President Klaus Iohannis's declassified intelligence revealed "aggressive hybrid Russian attacks" through thousands of social media accounts promoting Georgescu, who led despite declaring zero campaign spending. The court mandates a complete rerun of the election whilst Prime Minister Ciolacu backs the decision, calling for investigations into the alleged interference.

4. Georgia

Pro-EU protests intensify across Georgia as demonstrators oppose the government's decision to freeze EU accession talks for four years. The ruling Georgian Dream party faces widespread criticism for its increasingly pro-Russian stance, whilst outgoing President Zourabichvili refuses to step down amidst claims of election rigging. The crisis deepens as hundreds of diplomats protest the EU talks suspension as unconstitutional, whilst the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pledges support for Georgia's European aspirations.

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Cybersecurity and lawful access

1. Malaysia

The Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) launches new cybersecurity guidelines to enhance information and network security in the communications industry. The non-mandatory Information and Network Security Guidelines (INSG) offers best practices for service providers to manage cyber risks and protect consumers. MCMC developed these guidelines through extensive stakeholder consultation, aiming to strengthen Malaysia's digital infrastructure without adding regulatory burden.

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