Our Assessment Guide
How to understand our assessment
Security Threat Assessment Matrix
| Threat Level | Impact | Frequency | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negligible | No measurable impact. | Extremely rare or one-off. | Limited to a single individual or very small area. |
| Minimal | Negligible or minor impact. | Rare or isolated. | Limited to a small area or group. |
| Low | Minor but noticeable impact. | Infrequent. | Localised to a specific community or sub-region. |
| Moderate | Noticeable but manageable impact. | Occasional. | Localised to a specific region or province. |
| Significant | Substantial impact on people, infrastructure, or finances. | Frequent. | Regional or multi-provincial scope. |
| High | Severe impact with potential for escalation. | Very frequent or recurring. | National scope. |
| Critical | Catastrophic or existential impact. | Constant or escalating. | Transnational or strategic implications. |
Regional Relevance Assessment Matrix
| Significance Level | Economic Impact | Diplomatic Relevance | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Critical | Immediate major disruption to regional supply chains or energy markets; potential financial crisis; severe trade restrictions | Fundamental shift in regional diplomatic alignments; direct intervention requirement; ASEAN unity threatened | Immediate (0-3 months) |
| High | Substantial but manageable impact on regional trade or investment flows; sectoral disruptions; commodity price volatility | Requires significant regional diplomatic response or position-taking; coalition-building necessary; conflicting regional positions | Short-term (3-6 months) |
| Moderate | Noticeable effects on specific sectors or bilateral relationships; manageable supply chain adjustments; limited capital flow impacts | Prompts diplomatic consultations among regional partners; statement coordination; realignment of specific bilateral relations | Medium-term (6-12 months) |
| Low | Limited economic spillover effects; minimal disruption to trade; isolated sectoral impacts | Minor diplomatic repositioning or statements required; limited effect on existing partnerships | Long-term (1-2 years) |
| Minimal | Negligible direct economic impact on region; no discernible effect on trade flows or investment patterns | Minimal diplomatic relevance to regional interests; no requirement for position-taking | Indeterminate or very long-term |
Disaster Severity Assessment
| Risk Level | Casualty Impact | Infrastructure Damage | Geographical Reach | Response Capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negligible | No casualties or minor injuries only | Minimal damage, no structural impacts | Highly localised, affecting <1km² | Local resources sufficient; no external support needed |
| Minimal | Minor injuries; no fatalities | Superficial damage to non-critical infrastructure | Localised, affecting single community or district | Local emergency services capable of managing response |
| Low | Multiple injuries; isolated fatalities | Moderate damage to limited infrastructure; essential services maintained | Sub-regional impact affecting multiple communities | Regional resources strained but managing; limited external support needed |
| Moderate | Significant injuries; multiple fatalities | Substantial damage to infrastructure; temporary disruption to essential services | Regional impact affecting portions of provinces/states | Regional resources overwhelmed; national support required |
| Significant | Mass casualties; substantial fatalities | Severe damage to critical infrastructure; extended disruption to essential services | Multi-regional impact affecting multiple provinces/states | National resources strained; international coordination advisable |
| High | Large-scale casualties; high fatality rate | Widespread destruction of infrastructure; collapse of essential services | National impact affecting much of country | National resources overwhelmed; international assistance necessary |
| Critical | Catastrophic casualties; extreme fatality rate | Catastrophic destruction of infrastructure; complete failure of essential services | Transnational impact affecting multiple countries | Requires coordinated international humanitarian response |
Recovery & Stability Factors
| Risk Level | Economic Impact | Social Stability | Recovery Timeline | Compounding Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negligible | Negligible economic disruption | No social disruption | Days | No significant compounding factors |
| Minimal | Limited localised economic effects | Minor temporary social disruption | Days to weeks | Isolated vulnerability factors |
| Low | Measurable local economic impact | Noticeable social strain but stable | Weeks | Limited pre-existing vulnerabilities |
| Moderate | Regional economic disruption | Social services strained; isolated incidents of unrest | Weeks to months | Moderate pre-existing vulnerabilities |
| Significant | Substantial economic impact with sectoral disruptions | Widespread social service disruption; potential for localised unrest | Months | Multiple pre-existing vulnerabilities |
| High | Severe economic impact with potential lasting effects | Social services collapsed in affected areas; widespread unrest potential | Months to years | Serious pre-existing vulnerabilities (conflict, poverty, governance) |
| Critical | Catastrophic economic impact with long-term consequences | Complete social breakdown in affected areas; displacement crisis | Years | Critical pre-existing vulnerabilities; cascade effects likely |
Humanitarian Access & Response Complexity
| Risk Level | Physical Access | Security Environment | Coordination Complexity | Population Vulnerability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negligible | Unimpeded access | Secure environment | Single-agency response | Low vulnerability populations |
| Minimal | Minor access constraints | Generally secure with isolated concerns | Limited multi-agency coordination | Mostly resilient populations with isolated vulnerabilities |
| Low | Localised access challenges | Secure with monitoring requirements | Multi-agency coordination required | Mixed vulnerability with adequate coping mechanisms |
| Moderate | Significant access constraints | Permissive but unstable | Complex coordination across multiple sectors | Substantial vulnerable populations; strained coping mechanisms |
| Significant | Major access limitations | Unstable with security incidents | Complex coordination across multiple agencies and sectors | Primarily vulnerable populations; inadequate coping mechanisms |
| High | Severe access constraints; alternative methods required | Non-permissive environment; active security threats | Highly complex coordination across national and international actors | Highly vulnerable populations; collapsed coping mechanisms |
| Critical | Extreme access challenges; large areas inaccessible | Active conflict or hostile environment | Extremely complex coordination under contested control | Critically vulnerable populations; negative coping strategies prevalent |